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Dinesh

Dinesh club

Posted: 14 Jun 2013

Taken: 23 May 2012

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U.K •
Martin Mere •
Fence •
Excerpt •
SUPERFORECASTING •
The Art of Science of Precision •
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Philip Tetlock •
Dan Gardner •

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Black Swans

Black Swans
www.wwt.org.uk/wetland-centres/martin-mere
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 Dinesh
Dinesh club
ENTER THE BLACK SWAN

Nissim Taleb is a former Wall Street trader whose thinking about uncertainty and probability has produced three enormously influential books and turned ‘black swan” into a common English phase.

For those unfamiliar with the concept, imagine you are a European living four centuries ago. You have seen many swans in your life to date. All were white. If you were asked to envision all the possible swans you might ever encounter, you would probably imagine lots and lots of swans that vary in size and shape, but all would be white, because your experience has taught you all swans are white. But then a ship returns from Australia. On board is a swan -- a black swan. You re stunned. The “black swan” is therefore a brilliant metaphor for an event so far outside experience we can’t even imagine it until it happens. ~ Page 238

SUPERFORECASTING
2 years ago. Edited 13 months ago.

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