Today, with the USA on the cusp of an intractable split, the Supreme Court exhibited a rare example of unity handing down a 9-0 decision that prohibited states from removing former President Donald Trump from the ballot. Like him or loathe him, this is the correct decision since allowing states to determine who is on their ballots would've destroyed our electoral system since states sympathetic to Trump’s candidacy threatened to retaliate and likewise remove his opponent, President Joe Biden from their ballots. It is up to voters to decide who is to be our president, not judges and political hacks that seek to create a ballot of handpicked “approved” candidates to preserve their power.
However, since the U.S. Supreme Court asserted Congress has the ability to remove a presidential candidate in an extreme case, Democrats have begun to draft legislation to remove Trump. Republicans are sure to follow and draft legislation for Biden’s removal. Both will assert they are defending the constitution when in fact they are exploiting it to abuse the system and promote a one-party system that is antithetical to democracy. Presently House Speaker Mike Johnson is the only person who stands in the way of such an undemocratic insurrection and by the slimmest of margins. One can only hope an extremist doesn’t put an end to his tenuous speakership to enable the authoritarian power grab to succeed that would likely prematurely precipitate a civil war.
With the divide being the greatest since the U.S. Civil War of 1861-65, one can only hope the U.S. Supreme Court makes another move to preserve democracy and in this case puts an end to the “lawfare” abuses of the justice system, declaring officials of both major political parties (Trump and his associates and Biden and his associates) are immune from every prosecutorial attempt and issues blanket amnesty to persons viewed as political prisoners since justice hasn’t been blind nor applied equally since J6 (January 6th, 2021). They may have to swallow hard, but it’s for the greater good of the nation. It doesn’t matter that such a decision will be unpopular with the “other” side, the fact is both parties reek of like-kind corruption and have engaged in similar authoritarian and divisive acts, such that this is the perfect opportunity to de-escalate the present tense situation and begin to bring the country back together. If not, like any divided country, the USA will ultimately cease to exist.
If no such decision is rendered, then 2024 may mark the end of the USA as the country splinters into possibly five states – the east and west coasts, the center, Hawaii and Alaska since like any divided country, the USA will ultimately cease to exist especially since each side fearing a cycle of reprisals and revenge will resort to every measure to retain (in the case of Democrats) or gain power (in the case of Republicans) fully aware the other’s win would present an existential threat to their individual economic well-being, freedom and even lives. Out of desperation with backs against the wall, neither will accept the results of the election no matter how transparent, free and fair. Instead they will likely resort to violence to achieve their end objectives.
Consequently in this case, the best hope would be for a quick, peaceful dissolution. However, a worst case violent breakup is most likely plunging the USA into a civil war reminiscent of the French revolution where many will seek to redress past grievances and perceived slights through a paroxysm of violence that will spare no one and no institution (church and state alike) and seek to erase our history and culture that though imperfect, often proved adaptable, flexible enough to improve and reflective of a unified country that many through the centuries have aspired to become a citizen of.
Having said this, perhaps the last best and only hope is the election of a candidate who is above the two-party system, in this case Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Even though I don’t agree with all of his views, he is the only credible and moderate candidate that stands a chance of overcoming the entrenched two-party system. With a pedigree directly linked to John F. Kennedy, a past U.S. president that exhibited greatness before his life was cut short by an assassin’s bullet (1963) and to presidential-nominee, Robert F. Kennedy (his father) whose life was also cut short by an assassin (1968), he has the name-recognition and potential to bring the country back together – that is if Republican and Democratic leaders even accept an outcome that awards an outsider the presidency.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will get my vote since the two-party system has failed us miserably and resulted in the very outcome our first president George Washington who had refused to join a political party feared most. In his 1796 farewell address, Washington had warned that political parties “were factions that threatened to divide the electorate into competing groups who might use violence to advance their interests… [that] might… disrupt the separation of powers especially… where loyalty to a party could interfere with the system of checks and balances… and stand in the way of effective representation [since] elected officials [would] represent only fellow party members and… leave opposition groups without a voice…”[1] Tragically we already see the fruits the establishment of political parties has caused – intractable division that appears on the verge of erupting into violence, elected officials serving the interests of the leadership of their respective parties, zero-sum politics where consensus and compromise are taboos to be avoided at all cost, and now calls for the dissolution of the U.S. Supreme Court!
One can only hope Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is elected to disrupt the two-party system and pave the way for future leaders who will put constituents first and respect the separation of powers that preserved our democracy for nearly 250 years. If not, then 2024 may very well mark the dissolution of America.
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[1] Eric C. Sands. George Washington on Political Parties. Teaching American History. 20 September 2022. https://teachingamericanhistory.org/blog/george-washington-on-political-parties/
In my opinion, the U.S. continues to suffer from ongoing constitutional retrogression or decay. Previously, the base case assumed the existence of a broad and informed electorate committed to the democratic form of government, robust constitutional checks and balances, and strong legal institutions sufficient to head off the decay before it became too advanced.
Today, the assumptions that formed that base case no longer seem credible. The electorate is increasingly balkanized. Disinformation pushed by often crude Talk Radio, noisy television hosts, and other ideological outlets, along with social media that permits people to embrace the information that confirms their biases have divided the electorate and rendered the electorate increasingly ineffective. Constitutional checks and balances have continued to degrade into raw and rigid weapons of obstruction aimed at advancing ideological goals, often with little connection to the broader national interest. This obstruction has made even the basic maintenance of core governmental functions a difficult undertaking. The legal system appears increasingly slow and impotent when it comes to addressing some of the big legal questions of the age.
Long periods of constitutional retrogression can culminate in a sudden constitutional collapse or even authoritarian reversion. January 6 was perhaps a foreshock of such an outcome. At a minimum, it delivered a blow that further increased systemic and institutional fragility. At the same time, the larger structural pressures responsible--particularly the ongoing decay of the idea of truth and the erosion of evidence-informed judgment--continue to proceed unabated.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an NYU historian specializing in authoritarianism explained the importance of truth to democracy. In Strongmen, she wrote:
The decay of truth and democratic dissolution proceed hand in hand, starting with the insurgent’s assertion that the establishment media delivers false or biased information while he speaks the truth and risks everything to get the “real facts” out. Once his supporters bond to his person, they stop caring about his falsehoods. They believe him because they believe in him.”
History has often not been kind to societies that were unable to stop and reverse such decay, regardless of whether such failures were the result of deliberate choice or growing powerlessness. The 1922 March on Rome or developments in Germany in the early 1930s provide some prominent examples of the darker evolution that is possible. Other paths short of full-fledged authoritarianism, including prolonged ineffectiveness and irrelevance are also possible. For now, U.S. constitutional retrogression continues and that continuation implies growing future risk, as the sphere of common ground that underpins an effective democratic framework continues to shrink.
Finally, to quote Steven Livitsky in How Democracies Die:
One of the great ironies of how democracies die is that the very defense of democracy is often used as a pretext for its subversion… The tragic paradox of the electoral route to authoritarianism is that democracy’s assassins use the very institutions of democracy… to kill it. [They] cast their rivals as criminal, subversive, unpatriotic, or a threat to national security or the existing way of life.
[T]he fundamental problem facing American democracy remains extreme partisan division.
This is precisely the situation the USA finds itself in, necessitating Supreme Court intervention and disruption to the two-party system that has fueled division and led to the election of authoritarian leaders – Republicans and Democrats, past presidents and today's current president and extremists on both sides of the aisle in Congress that commit gross abuses to vilify, slander and "prosecute" their opponents to promote their respective party's agenda. :(
Now America is at an inflection point and dissolution (most likely violent) once considered unimaginable appears to be the end result of the 2024 elections if an Independent isn't elected to break the destructive partisan cycle. Yes, Ruth Ben-Ghiat is correct when describing the prototypical authoritarian leader and the decay of truth. And until we can escape partisan politics, bridge differences and promote healing and reconciliation and most importantly cast aside "group" think to respect differences of opinion and ideology, it doesn't matter who this prototypical authoritarian leader is (Trump, Biden) – the USA as a cohesive, connected and united country as a single nation-state is in grave danger.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13165371/Goodbye-America-voters-want-state-secede-union-Texas-California-New-York-Alaska.html
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. really seems to be the salvation.
Let's hope for the best – and pray.
* ઇઉ * club has replied to William Sutherland clubSo not all hope is lost.
Stay strong, William!
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